I’m surprised that Family First has preferenced the Liberals in every South Australian seat for the March 20 election.
It’s no surprise their preferences will go to Liberal ahead of Labor, but I expected them to favor independents in some key seats.
I met the Family First candidate for Mount Gambier, Henk Bruins, a few weeks ago and he expressed his admiration for Don Pegler, who is the independent with a chance of winning the seat.
In The Border Watch today, Bruins conceded the decision had been made at state executive level.
I actually think it’s a decision that could shape the outcome.
Bruins is an excellent candidate for Family First and could be expected to build on the 4.1 percent they polled last time.
If most of his vote transfers to the Liberal candidate, Steve Perryman, as could be expected, it will be that much harder for Pegler to get past Labor on primary votes and possibly win the seat.
At this stage I’m tipping a Liberal victory.
×0
Personally, it is no surprise to me that Family First would prefer Liberal uniformly, given that they are ideologically closer to the Libs on most issues than to the ALP.
This is in much the same way as it seems sensible for the Greens to fairly consistently preference the ALP over the Libs.
However, as you say, it is a surprise that Family First hasn’t preference some independents.
I would assume that on a state-wide basis however their decision makes sense from their point-of-view.
I agree with your observation, that Family First is likely to increase its share of first preference votes, from the 4.1% they polled last election, due to having Henk Bruins, a relatively high-profile identity in the local area, as a candidate.
Preference deals and the tactics and strategies behind them, are a fascinating topic in my view.
The allocation of preferences is often a sensitive issue, where practical politics often overrides textbook tactics.
For instance, I notice in last Friday’s (March 12) edition of ‘The Border Watch’ that Don Pegler has opted for a split ticket, neither prefercing the Libs or the ALP exclusively.
Whilst from a textbook point-of-view it would make more sense for Pegler to preference the ALP (given that his main competitor is the Libs), both myself and others I have spoken too, have agreed that Pegler has opted a split ticket for practical political reasons.
Pegler will be relying on gaining a large vote share from people who would otherwise vote Liberal, ‘uncommitted Liberals’, I suppose you would call them. This group would likely be alienated from Pegler if he solely preferenced the ALP (the Libs could in such a case say things such as ‘a vote for Pegler is a vote for Labor).
This is similar to how on a textbook basis, there are several seats in inner-city Melbourne and Sydney, where it would make tactical sense for the Greens to preference the Libs. However this would alienate many Greens voters (and in the few cases where it has been done, the Greens voters have tended to ingore the How-To-Vote cards and preference the ALP anyway).
However, I disagree with your view of a Liberal victory. Personally, I will be voting for the ALP on Saturday (March 20). Nevertheless, I quite confidently predict that the ALP will come in third on first preference votes.
It is common-sense that ALP preferences would in such a case then flow to Pegler instead of the Libs.
In which case, I would predict a Don Pegler victory, although I think it will be very close.
Twitter: mgorey
says:
Family First has won upper house seats previously because it did deals on preferences. Fielding got preferences from everyone, which is how he won a Senate seat with so few primary votes.
There’s a view that Robert Brokenshire has steered SA Family First into a closer relationship with the Liberals.
You don’t think Viv Maher will do at least as well as Brad Coates in 2006 (22%)?
Maybe not, but I don’t think Pegler will do as well as Rory McEwen (35%). I think Rory won with about 25% first time, which is probably what Pegler will poll, so yes, it will be close.
That’s why Family First preferences could prove critical. However, I heard that in the last Victorian election their preferences didn’t mean much. FF voters weren’t disciplined in following how-to-vote cards. Pegler is relying on that, I think.
Postal votes will favor Perryman. That’s what happened in Frome, so if Pegler is going to win it should be clear on Saturday night.
Yes, Steve Fielding did get preferences from everyone, including the ALP, which led to him getting a Senate seat in 2004.
I think the ALP has realised its mistake regarding preferencing Fielding in Victoria (given that from the ALP’s point-of-view, Fielding has been excessively obstructionist to their agenda) and will not be repeating the exercise of doing similar preference deals with Family First in the next Federal election.
I suppose it is no surprise really that Robert Brokenshire has moved Family First closer to the Liberals, given that he used to be a Liberal himself.
However, there is always the risk that a minor party that moves itself too close to a major party, particulary regarding consistent preferencing in favour of one major party over the other, risks being exploited by the major party.
For instance, many Greens often feel that they are taken for granted by the ALP, given the history of the Greens preferencing the ALP.
With regard to the seat of Mount Gambier, I think that Viv Maher is an excellent candidate for the ALP.
Nevertheless, if the ALP gets 22% of first preference votes, I will be considering this a very good outcome (from my perspective as an ALP voter.)
Again Adam, I am gobsmacked by your dedication to the circus we will be all going to on Saturday.
Maybe you have a career in hiding, that is ready to be launched
A cannibal was walking through the jungle and came upon a restaurant operated by a fellow cannibal.
Feeling somewhat hungry, he sat down and looked over the menu..
Tourist: $5.00
Broiled Missionary: $10.00
Fried Explorer: $15.00
Baked Independant and Grilled Liberal: $100.00
The cannibal called the waiter over and asked, “Why such a price difference for the Politicians?”
The cook relpied, “Have you ever tried to clean one? they’re so full of shit, it takes all morning.”
Odd that Family First are preferencing the Shooters Party and One Nation above the Greens! Go figure.