The power of incumbency
I like the introduction to Mike Steketee’s article in The Australian today about the NSW election:
If the incompetent, scandal-ridden NSW Iemma Government has the runaway win in today’s election suggested by Newspoll, it will give a new meaning to the power of incumbency.
It’s an interesting question to ask if governments can buy election results in Australia today. It’s looking to be increasingly the case.
Propaganda has become a key tool of government. So-called information campaigns are aimed at creating a warm and fuzzy vibe towards the ruling party. Oppositions occasionally make whimpering noises of timid admonishment but secretly wish they were on the other side inflicting the same strategy.
Steve Bracks in Victoria is very good at this. I remember ads about a year out from the last election talking about how many new nurses his government had appointed and how great the health system was (highly contestable).
A film crew travelled the state at great expense getting footage of local nurses. It was a slick job and very effective. Most certainly it was wasteful of money that could have been better spent treating sick people but Bracks will consider it a good investment.
I don’t believe though that political advertising is the sole reason for governments holding power indefinitely.
There is a distinct lack of talent in politics at the moment, especially at state level.
I’m not sure what a backbencher gets paid in Western Australia but he could probably earn more driving a truck on a mine site. If the NSW opposition is a rabble it’s no different in any other state.
Curiously, at a federal level it seems that Kevin Rudd is genuinely gaining traction and poses a real threat to the Coalition.
I don’t get blinded looking at the talent on the Labor benches and there’s no doubt Howard is rolling out the pork barrel as I write these words. Why then is Labor challenging so strongly?
Firstly, I don’t believe the opinion polls. I can’t see Labor gaining ground in Western Australia or Victoria. The key battlegrounds are going to be Queensland and Adelaide.
Labor will win back some votes it lost previously in heartland seats and that may account for much of the swing.
On the broad principle of incumbency though, I think the federal arena is different because more people take an interest in it.
State governments can stumble from crisis to crisis, as Alan Carpenter does, and stay in command. People are amazingly forgiving of state governments. You have to bankrupt a state, like John Cain did, or be obviously corrupt before people take any notice.
Good federal governments are a matter of national pride. We became uneasy about the possibility of Mark Latham walking the red carpet at the White House muttering about arse lickers and we never got used to the idea of Kim Beazley wearing one of those tropical shirts at an APEC forum.
Kevin Rudd though speaks fluent Chinese. He looks like an accountant, which effectively makes him a younger version of John Howard.
Federal elections are fought largely on leadership personalities and people are less forgiving of mistakes.
These articles might be of interest:
It’s going to be harder for oppositions to win elections. Corporate donations favor governments as well and they have more to spend on their campaigns in addition to the pre-election propaganda.